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Replication Analysis

Replication Framework

  • Replication Framework: (Simulation) Automated multi-run experiments with confidence intervals

📊 Running the full simulation (multiple replications)

Runs multiple independent replications, aggregates results, and computes confidence intervals and statistical analysis.

desk-sim -m examples/hospital.py --mode replications

Use

Performance Metrics

  • Entity Metrics: System time, queue time, service time
  • Resource Metrics: Utilization, queue length, busy/idle time

  • WIP Tracking: Time-weighted work-in-process analysis

  • Automated Reports: Simulation results with diagnostics and recommendations

(Report for the example hospital.py)

EXECUTING 30 REPLICATIONS...
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Replication 1/30 (seed: 12345)
Replication 2/30 (seed: 13345)
Replication 3/30 (seed: 14345)
Replication 4/30 (seed: 15345)
Replication 5/30 (seed: 16345)
  Progress: 5/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.1 min
Replication 6/30 (seed: 17345)
Replication 7/30 (seed: 18345)
Replication 8/30 (seed: 19345)
Replication 9/30 (seed: 20345)
Replication 10/30 (seed: 21345)
  Progress: 10/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.1 min
Replication 11/30 (seed: 22345)
Replication 12/30 (seed: 23345)
Replication 13/30 (seed: 24345)
Replication 14/30 (seed: 25345)
Replication 15/30 (seed: 26345)
  Progress: 15/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.1 min
Replication 16/30 (seed: 27345)
Replication 17/30 (seed: 28345)
Replication 18/30 (seed: 29345)
Replication 19/30 (seed: 30345)
Replication 20/30 (seed: 31345)
  Progress: 20/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.0 min
Replication 21/30 (seed: 32345)
Replication 22/30 (seed: 33345)
Replication 23/30 (seed: 34345)
Replication 24/30 (seed: 35345)
Replication 25/30 (seed: 36345)
  Progress: 25/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.0 min
Replication 26/30 (seed: 37345)
Replication 27/30 (seed: 38345)
Replication 28/30 (seed: 39345)
Replication 29/30 (seed: 40345)
Replication 30/30 (seed: 41345)
  Progress: 30/30 | Estimated time remaining: 0.0 min

REPLICATIONS COMPLETED in 0.1 minutes
Average time per replication: 0.2 seconds
================================================================================
STATISTICAL RESULTS (30 REPLICATIONS)
================================================================================

SYSTEM METRICS:
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Average time in the system:
  Average: 19.46 +/- 0.62
  CI 95%: [18.84, 20.08]
  Precision: +/-3.18%
  Standard Deviation: 1.66
  Min-Max: [17.65, 23.35]

Entities processed:
  Average: 330.67 +/- 7.71
  CI 95%: [322.96, 338.38]
  Precision: +/-2.33%
  Standard Deviation: 20.65
  Min-Max: [299.00, 379.00]

Throughput (entities/min):
  Average: 0.25 +/- 0.01
  CI 95%: [0.24, 0.26]
  Precision: +/-2.33%
  Standard Deviation: 0.02
  Min-Max: [0.23, 0.29]


ACTIVITY METRICS:
----------------------------------------
Consultation Queue Time:
  Average: 1.88 +/- 0.35
  CI 95%: [1.53, 2.23]
  Precision: +/-18.61%
  Standard Deviation: 0.94
  Min-Max: [0.96, 4.80]

Consultation Service Time:
  Average: 9.94 +/- 0.07
  CI 95%: [9.87, 10.02]
  Precision: +/-0.75%
  Standard Deviation: 0.20
  Min-Max: [9.66, 10.33]

Consultation System Time:
  Average: 11.83 +/- 0.38
  CI 95%: [11.44, 12.21]
  Precision: +/-3.23%
  Standard Deviation: 1.02
  Min-Max: [10.72, 14.92]

Pharmacy Queue Time:
  Average: 1.28 +/- 0.19
  CI 95%: [1.09, 1.47]
  Precision: +/-14.94%
  Standard Deviation: 0.51
  Min-Max: [0.56, 3.13]

Pharmacy Service Time:
  Average: 4.99 +/- 0.11
  CI 95%: [4.88, 5.10]
  Precision: +/-2.22%
  Standard Deviation: 0.30
  Min-Max: [4.39, 5.56]

Pharmacy System Time:
  Average: 6.27 +/- 0.26
  CI 95%: [6.01, 6.53]
  Precision: +/-4.14%
  Standard Deviation: 0.69
  Min-Max: [5.13, 8.42]

Triage Queue Time:
  Average: 2.17 +/- 0.19
  CI 95%: [1.99, 2.36]
  Precision: +/-8.55%
  Standard Deviation: 0.50
  Min-Max: [1.41, 3.63]

Triage Service Time:
  Average: 2.51 +/- 0.01
  CI 95%: [2.50, 2.51]
  Precision: +/-0.22%
  Standard Deviation: 0.02
  Min-Max: [2.47, 2.54]

Triage System Time:
  Average: 4.68 +/- 0.19
  CI 95%: [4.49, 4.86]
  Precision: +/-3.99%
  Standard Deviation: 0.50
  Min-Max: [3.90, 6.14]


USE OF RESOURCES:
----------------------------------------
Utilization rate - doctors:
  Average: 53.49% +/- 1.91
  CI 95%: [51.59, 55.40]%
  Precision: +/-3.56%
  Standard Deviation: 5.10
  Min-Max: [46.53, 67.52]%

Utilization rate - nursesT:
  Average: 62.53% +/- 1.43
  CI 95%: [61.10, 63.95]%
  Precision: +/-2.28%
  Standard Deviation: 3.82
  Min-Max: [55.82, 70.77]%

Utilization rate - nurses:
  Average: 66.89% +/- 1.91
  CI 95%: [64.98, 68.80]%
  Precision: +/-2.85%
  Standard Deviation: 5.11
  Min-Max: [59.50, 78.81]%

Utilization rate - pharmacy:
  Average: 52.13% +/- 1.82
  CI 95%: [50.32, 53.95]%
  Precision: +/-3.48%
  Standard Deviation: 4.86
  Min-Max: [43.47, 61.12]%


PRECISION ANALYSIS:
----------------------------------------
High precision (<=5%): 35 metrics
Medium precision (5-10%): 9 metrics
Low precision (>10%): 10 metrics

Metrics with low precision (consider more replications):
  doctors_avg_queue: 43.5%
  nurses_avg_queue: 27.4%
  final_wip: 22.2%
  pharmacy_avg_queue: 22.0%
  Consultation_queue_time: 18.6%
  Pharmacy_queue_time: 14.9%
  nursesT_avg_queue: 12.9%
  doctors_max_queue: 12.8%
  nursesT_max_queue: 10.6%
  nurses_max_queue: 10.0%

Number of replications: 30
Confidence level: 95%
Recommendation: Good accuracy - consider more replications for critical metrics

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RESOURCE UTILIZATION:
=======================================================

Nursest:
  Mean utilization: 62.5% +/- 1.4%
  CI 95%: [61.1%, 64.0%]
  Relative precision: +/-2.3%
  RECOMMENDATION: Moderate and efficient use
     Ideal level for most systems

Doctors:
  Mean utilization: 53.5% +/- 1.9%
  CI 95%: [51.6%, 55.4%]
  Relative precision: +/-3.6%
  RECOMMENDATION: Moderate and efficient use
     Ideal level for most systems

Nurses:
  Mean utilization: 66.9% +/- 1.9%
  CI 95%: [65.0%, 68.8%]
  Relative precision: +/-2.9%
  RECOMMENDATION: Moderate and efficient use
     Ideal level for most systems

Pharmacy:
  Mean utilization: 52.1% +/- 1.8%
  CI 95%: [50.3%, 54.0%]
  Relative precision: +/-3.5%
  RECOMMENDATION: Moderate and efficient use
     Ideal level for most systems


Results exported to results/framework_results.csv
       entities_processed  system_time_avg  ...  Consultation_total_cost  Pharmacy_total_cost
count           30.000000        30.000000  ...                30.000000            30.000000
mean           330.666667        19.457024  ...             39996.952288          8998.969258
std             20.645336         1.655454  ...              2975.884980           683.443079
min            299.000000        17.650379  ...             35318.257545          7890.646810
25%            315.250000        18.291610  ...             37733.148523          8607.144075
50%            330.000000        18.924284  ...             39699.344231          8852.724417
75%            342.250000        20.478045  ...             41471.168983          9481.115028
max            379.000000        23.353643  ...             47035.048976         10447.222585